Methodology
The value of research is in the reasoning and the record. This page explains exactly how both are produced here so you can judge the work on its merits.
The house format
Every report follows the same 12 sections. Consistency makes the work easier to read and harder to fudge — the same questions get answered every time.
- 01
Recommendation
The call (Long / Short / Hold), conviction, price target, and horizon — up front, no burying the lede.
- 02
Executive Summary
The thesis in a paragraph: what I think, why, and why now.
- 03
Company Overview
What the business actually does and how it makes money.
- 04
Industry & Competitive
The market structure, competitive position, and where the moat is (or isn’t).
- 05
Thesis & Variant View
Where my view differs from consensus or the price — with the reasons.
- 06
Catalysts
The specific events expected to close the gap inside the horizon.
- 07
Valuation
A DCF reconciled against comparable companies and precedent transactions.
- 08
Financial Model Summary
Key drivers and outputs from the underlying three-statement model.
- 09
Sensitivity & Scenario
How the target moves under bear / base / bull assumptions.
- 10
Risks, Mitigants & Disconfirmers
What could break the thesis — and what I’d need to see to admit it.
- 11
Position & Sizing
How the idea translates into a position in the paper book, and why that size.
- 12
Appendix & Sources
Primary filings, data, and the trail behind the numbers.
The paper portfolio
Ideas become positions in a hypothetical $100MM long/short book. It is paper — no real capital is deployed — and price-only, marked to market without dividends, financing, or borrow costs. The goal is a clean, honest read on whether the calls add value.
Each position is entered at the price on the publication date, so the entry can’t be cherry-picked after the fact. Positions stay marked until they’re explicitly closed, and the entry and closing prices are part of the permanent record.
Benchmarking vs the S&P 500
Net asset value is indexed to 100 at inception and tracked against the S&P 500 over the same window. The number that matters is excess return — NAV minus the benchmark. Beating the market is the bar; matching it with more risk is not a win.
Position sizing
Size follows conviction and risk, not enthusiasm. Higher-conviction ideas with clearer catalysts and more downside protection get more weight; speculative or thinner-edge ideas are kept small. Every report states its size and the reasoning behind it.
Losers stay published
Nothing is deleted. Calls that go wrong remain on the site with their original timestamp and price, and closed positions stay in the record. A track record only means something if it includes the misses — so this one does, on purpose.
Not investment advice. Starzecki Research is an independent, educational project. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The portfolio is hypothetical and tracks no real capital. Prices and figures may be delayed or in error. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before investing.